Steven Gerrard, Frank Lampard, Gareth Barry, Aaron Lennon, James Milner, Joe Cole, David Beckham, Shaun Wright-Phillips, Ashley Young, David Bentley, Michael Carrick, Stewart Downing, Owen Hargreaves, Jermaine Jenas, Theo Walcott, Tom Huddlestone, Jimmy Bullard and Scott Parker.

There are plenty of points to consider off the bat, and the first thing Capello will want to get right is balance. There is no point picking the best 8 midfielders in the country, unless of course they give you the right balance. He will also be looking at the players who provide him with a variety of options and he’ll also want players who can do damage in the last 20 minutes, impact substitutes.

Although it is not obvious on this season’s form, Gerrard and Lampard are dead certainties, barring a season ending injury. This moves us on to players who are obvious certainties from this season’s form. I am talking about Aaron Lennon and James Milner. These two record breaking youth players from the strong Leeds academy have grown and matured into strong performers week in, week out.

The formation will rely heavily on a holding midfielder, and England’s options seem a bit flat in this area at the moment. Owen Hargreaves is yet to get going this season, Gareth Barry has been ordinary and Michael Carrick hasn’t made any headlines. This may open up a place for Tom Huddlestone, who is a regular in the Tottenham side. He adds a physical presence to the side and has spent games playing in central defence at times. The ideal selection would be a fully fit Owen Hargreaves, but if he’s not available then Tom Huddlestone is in the picture. This will leave a shoot out between Barry and Carrick, and I believe Barry’s diversity and his important role for Manchester City will give him the slot.

This means there are two more positions for the wide roles in the England team and if Capello is uncomfortable with this then he may sacrifice Huddlestone’s position in the belief that Barry can fulfil this role and Gerrard can also provide back up in this position. The men left to compete for the wide roles are Wright-Phillips, Beckham, Walcott, Joe Cole, Downing, and Ashley Young. These are tough decisions with each player offering their case.

Wright-Phillips has played well this season in between injuries, he ought to be reaching his peak, and he has pace, although he missed out 4 years ago.

Beckham provides a wealth of experience, plenty of effort, genuine quality on the ball and from set pieces and he can play in that central role too, but a lot will depend on his time at AC Milan.

Walcott was controversially picked 4 years ago and has developed slower than some might have hoped, he is lightning fast and will play plenty of games from now till the squad is announced. He can play up front too which will provide England with a fifth striker.

Joe Cole has been one of England’s best performers but he’s been out with injuries and hasn’t done enough since his return. He is experienced, reaching his peak and skilful.

Downing is also back from injury and is naturally left-footed, he is good from set-pieces and Capello has shown a direct interest in Downing in the past.

Ashley Young was young player of the year last year, he is an integral part of a deadly Aston Villa counter attack with his pace and crossing ability, but he has stuttered this year and failed to make the same noise he made last year.

Fabio Capello will probably take Ashley Young over teammate Downing, and to the same extent he would probably take a fully fit in-form Joe Cole over Ashley Young. The right hand side is more compelling, but I’m afraid Wright-Phillips looks set to miss out again, leaving a battle between Walcott and Beckham for the final slot.

As I said before if Hargreaves is fit and playing well then he will go to South Africa, meaning only one of Beckham and Walcott can go. Otherwise it will be two players out of Huddlestone, Beckham and Walcott. I think Capello will be swayed by Beckham’s experience and the pace of Walcott allows him to be a serious threat in the final minutes of a tight game.

England Squad so far:

Goalkeepers : D James, R Green, J Hart
Defenders: J Terry, R Ferdinand, A Cole, G Johnson, S Warnock, P Jagielka, W Brown, (M Upson or J Lescott)
Midfielders: S Gerrard, F Lampard, A Lennon, J Milner, G Barry, J Cole, D Beckham, T Walcott

1) Francesc Fabregas (59.52 minutes per goal/assist)
2) Robin Van Persie (68.42 minutes per goal/assist)
3) David N’Gog (68.67 minutes per goal/assist)
4) Didier Drogba (71.77 minutes per goal/assist)
5) Jermain Defoe (85.06 minutes per goal/assist)
6) Martin Petrov (85.50 minutes per goal/assist)
7) Craig Bellamy (90.07 minutes per goal/assist)
Ryan Giggs (90.83 minutes per goal/assist)
9) Fernando Torres (92.58 minutes per goal/assist)
10) Ivan Klasnic (96.5 minutes per goal/assist)

There are a few things to note here, firstly the top two are Arsenal players who between them have secured 16 goals and 19 assists from just 2208 minutes (roughly 25 games worth).

Secondly we must mention the appearance of David N’Gog, Martin Petrov and Ivan Klasnic who have not played the most football by any means but still have a very good strike rate, between the three of them they have 13 goals and 5 assists in 1504 minutes (roughly 17 games). This suggests that they ought to play more for their clubs, but with N’Gog competing with Torres he may not have much of a look in. As for Petrov, Mancini has started the Bulgarian in his first two games in charge so we may see more of him. Ivan Klasnic is becoming more of a regular in the Bolton line-up and will also be given chances.

It is also evident that players who have impressed this season are not on the list, such as Rooney, Bent and Lennon. So where as it is obvious that this is an indicator of a match winner it can’t tell us all we need to know. There is also a secondary point to be made there is only one Englishmen on the list and even Defoe was helped by his 5 goal effort at Wigan.

If we take a look at the minutes per goal/assist when the player has not won a match then we get a clearer indication of the match winner title.

In the six games that Arsenal have failed to win this season, Cesc Fabregas has been absent in one game and has scored once and provided one assist in the other five games. The one goal he scored put Arsenal a goal up against Burnley, after which Fabregas came off injured and Burnley equalised. This is compelling evidence to any football fan that didn’t know it already for the opinion that Cesc Fabregas is a match winner. He has a strike rate of 201 minutes per goal/assist when Arsenal fail to win, and 44.63 minutes per goal/assist when Arsenal win.

There are two men who can provide strong cases as match winners. England’s Wayne Rooney has played in all of the six games that Man United have failed to win this year, he has played all 540 minutes and has not scored or provided an assist, where as when Man United win he has a strike rate of 66.47 minutes per goal/assist. There is a similar trend with United’s Ryan Giggs who has also not scored or provided an assist in the games Man United have not won compared to his 65.12 minutes per goal/assist when they do win.

Here is a list of a few more players which make interesting reading (Player name, No win strike rate, Win strike rate):

Didier Drogba, 135 minutes per goal/assist, 57.72 minutes per goal/assist
Fernando Torres, 256 minutes per goal/assist, 59.9 minutes per goal/assist
Jermain Defoe 235 minutes per goal/assist, 63.64 minutes per goal/assist
Darren Bent, 157.375 minutes per goal/assist, 58 minutes per goal/assist
Louis Saha, 147.67 minutes per goal/assist, 58.4 minutes per goal/assist
Bobby Zamora, 198.5 minutes per goal/assist, 83.71 minutes per goal/assist
Hugo Rodallega, 225 minutes per goal/assist, 71.83 minutes per goal/assist

The last four on that list play for teams lower down in the league and it shows a heavier reliance on their goals. There are a few examples in the midfield too especially from two young English midfielders.

Aaron Lennon, 720 minutes per goal/assist, 79.82 minutes per goal/assist
James Milner, 337.5 minutes per goal/assist, 89.10 minutes per goal/assist

These two have pushed on this year and are developing into match winners. An interesting point here is that Aston Villa don’t show a heavy reliance on too many attacking players compared to Tottenham which suggests that the Aston Villa defence is a lot stronger and that they have a couple of match winners in that area.

The third contenders to break into the top 4 this year, Man City seem to have goals from all over the pitch and combining the talents of Bellamy, Tevez, and Adebayor we have a strike rate of 129.81 minutes per goal/assist when Man City have failed to win compared to 81.7 minutes per goal/assist when they do win. This isn’t a massive difference and suggests that Man City are good for goals in most situations and confirms the observations that their defence is the biggest problem.

So on the evidence that this season has provided so far, the usual match winners Lampard and Gerrard have fallen back a bit this season and some younger Englishmen are aiming to step up, whereas Wayne Rooney, Ryan Giggs and Didier Drogba have all done so much for their team it is the young Spaniard Cesc Fabregas who has taken his team the furthest this year.

Here is a list of all defenders selected in each Capello squad:

John Terry, Rio Ferdinand, Ashley Cole, Glen Johnson, Wayne Bridge, Wes Brown, Joleon Lescott, Matthew Upson, Ledley King, Micah Richards, Nicky Shorey, David Wheater, Jonathan Woodgate, Curtis Davies, Phil Jagielka, Stephen Warnock, Luke Young, Leighton Baines, Gary Cahill, Gary Neville and Michael Mancienne.

Fabio Capello will want to pick 7 or 8 defenders and the list above is not the full extent of his choices as there are now a few others on the brink. John Terry, England captain, will certainly be picked alongside Ashley Cole, Glen Johnson and Rio Ferdinand. Capello will want to find cover for each of these players, but will also have an eye on a player with versatility.

Let’s begin with the centre back role and discount some of the names in the above list. David Wheater, Michael Mancienne and Curtis Davies are all firmly out of the picture. I also feel that Woodgate’s injuries will mean that he will miss out. This does open the door for Dawson as he has been filling in for Spurs and Shawcross of Stoke, Johnson of Birmingham and Turner of Sunderland are playing well enough to provide outside options.

At the start of the season, Lescott and Upson had their position in the squad as centre back cover but based on what we’ve seen from them this season I don’t think they can go to South Africa and provide Capello with much confidence. There really is a fight developing for this position especially with Rio not playing football at the moment, it could be the vital selection for England.

If fitness wasn’t an issue I would select Ledley King each time, but unfortunately it may be deemed an unnecessary risk. Wes Brown’s versatility will probably pave a way for him but his form will need to improve. There is a problem in that the in-form players play for the “lesser” teams and the players like Brown and Lescott just aren’t playing well enough.

If I were Capello I would be praying that Rio and Terry are fully fit and in form, but past that you would think that Capello will stick to one of Lescott and Upson even though the defences of Man City and West Ham have been far from solid. It is the wrong decision as Cahill and Shawcross are playing very well and deserve a place in the squad, but I just can’t see it happening. You may have noticed I said he would pick one of Lescott and Upson, this is because there is one other option who is certain to be in the squad if he is fit. This is Everton’s Phil Jagielka and he will be back in 2010 providing the most clear cut cover for England’s key centre backs.

The right back and left back provide less of a headache for the England manager as he has world class players in Ashley Cole and Glen Johnson. The role of cover for the left-back position seems to be a shoot out between Warnock, Bridge and Baines. Of the three, Wayne Bridge has the most experience but again is the most out of form. Baines and Warnock provide a good final ball but don’t have the pace that you would like to have in this position. This did mean that Gibbs was briefly in the picture, but injury ruined that dream. I believe Bridge is the favourite amongst pundits to go, but I also believe he won’t be in the final squad. The English contingence at Aston Villa will provide Capello with plenty of opportunities to see Warnock and their position in the league will give him a massive edge when it comes to picking the squad.

The right back position may be where Capello looks to the utility player. He has options in Milner and Hargreaves in this position, both of whom can play across the midfield and provide good options from set pieces. If he was looking to select an outright right back then he would be making a choice between Brown and Richards who both provide centre back cover and perhaps Luke Young. I can’t see Richards being picked on current form and Luke Young doesn’t provide any versatility, so I feel Capello will go for the more experienced Wes Brown.

England Squad so far:

Goalkeepers : D James, R Green, J Hart
Defenders: J Terry, R Ferdinand, A Cole, G Johnson, S Warnock, P Jagielka, W Brown, (M Upson or J Lescott)

We will take a position by position look at Capello’s previous squads and also some outside options. It seems natural to begin with the goalkeepers and even more so with England as it is considered the problem position. Here is a list of all goalkeepers selected in each Capello squad:

David James
Robert Green
Joe Hart
Paul Robinson
Chris Kirkland
Ben Foster
Scott Carson
Joseph Lewis

The first six names play their football in the Premiership, and the first five are the first choice for their club. Scott Carson is playing football in the Championship for West Brom and Joe Lewis is playing for Peterborough United also in the Championship.

We have mentioned previously on this website that David James has played the most minutes in goal for England during the qualifiers and seems a certainty for the England squad. This paired with the fact that Robert Green has been named in the last seven England squads means that we can assume (fitness pending) that there is only one more place for a goalkeeper in the England squad.

The old debate of whether to bring two or three goalkeepers in a squad of 23 seems to have died and I fully expect each nation to bring three goalkeepers, so who will the final man be?

If we take a look at the teams that the above men play for, Birmingham are the most in form team and this gives Joe Hart the immediate edge. His youth will fit in well with the experience of James and Green too and it will be a good signal to the Under-21 system.

It is hard to see a keeper who is third choice for his club being third choice for country, which is why I would rule out Foster. A similar argument of not playing enough football at the top level would seem to rule out Carson and Lewis, but if Capello was looking into the second tier then I would give an outside chance to Newcastle’s Steve Harper.

So we are left with Robinson and Kirkland, two goalkeepers who earn their penny with Blackburn and Wigan respectively. Both are good shot stoppers but seem to make mistakes far too often for comfort. This is the problem with the English goalkeepers available, where as James and Green tend to make few mistakes for their clubs they do make mistakes for England. Kirkland and Robinson do make mistakes for their club and unless they can provide this consistency they shouldn’t be at the World Cup.

There is one outsider who does fit Capello’s mould, playing regular football at the highest level of competition for a top team. The Arsenal goalkeeper Almunia is eligible for England, and last year he was playing at a level above the English goalkeepers available. The debate of a Spanish footballer playing for England seemed to divide football fans, but with his form this season being average at best the debate now seems redundant.

It is an obvious point that fitness and form will determine the final decision but based on the facts so far, James and Green are certainties for the squad and with the final place up for grabs it seems that Joe Hart is the man most hungry and capable.

The likes of Ayrton Senna, Sir Vivian Richards and Muhammed Ali are known for their flair and entertainment value but they all had very successful careers. This has continued in modern times with Roy Jones Jr, Prince Naseem and Usain Bolt, but once again these sportsmen have all had success. Whereas these sportsmen undoubtedly have entertained they have not compromised their careers in a huge way.

This brings me on to Emmanuel Augustus. An American born Australian with an absolute desire for boxing…and dancing. He has great reflexes and a decent technique and although he could be a better boxer by being more sensible this never stops him from giving the fans what they want. He has lost to the likes of Jesus Chavez, David Diaz, Floyd Mayweather Jr, and Micky Ward. A man you can call on when in need as he proved in 2002 by taking on a fight just 2 days in advance. It is boxers like him who keep boxing going at the lower levels, he is the middle man who sorts the champions from the pretenders. He is more than that though, he has done it in the same crowd-pleasing manner and has refused to change his style and long may he continue.

Another example of a man who could have gone further in his sport if weren’t for his need to show the crowd something extraordinary is Iranian tennis player Mansour Bahrami. Now walking the globe as a tennis exhibition player showing off his unique array of skills on a tennis court he never realised his true potential as a singles player.

The two men mentioned above are entertainers certainly, but I feel that you’d have to be more than that to be the most expensive ticket in town. That is why the modern day superstars who play with high-intensity and the intention to entertain will excite a whole lot more. From that point it is all subjection, but I would pay good money to see the speed and flair of Cristiano Ronaldo, the genuine ease at which Usain Bolt dominates and the powerful craft of Lebron James in full flow.

Perhaps it is because I’ve never been very fast, or good enough at football or tall enough for basketball but for me personally, there is one man who stands out amongst them all as the most electrifying man in sport at this moment and that is the Indian opener Virender Sehwag. He holds three of the four fastest double centuries in Test history, he recently hit over 200 runs in boundaries in one innings against Sri Lanka, and he has a Test strike rate over 80%. He has the second highest strike rate in ODI cricket (min 1000 runs) only behind, another man who has often compromised results for entertainment, Shahid Afridi. He has hit 5 of the 50 fastest ODI centuries of all time, and he has hit the most fours per innings of any ODI batsman (min 1000 runs).

But these are just numbers, when you open the batting for India and come out into the middle with the nation’s hope resting on your shoulders and still have the nerve and talent to knock any bowler out of the park and to single-handedly destroy an entire team it makes the hairs on the back of your neck stand up. He has now reached that stage in a career, just as Usain Bolt, Cristiano Ronaldo and Lebron James have, where the public expect something to happen every time he steps out into the middle.

After suffering their 6th defeat of the league season to Arsenal, Liverpool have left the door wide open to the likes of Spurs, Aston Villa and Manchester City, who all chase top four finishes. Compound this with inconsistency from the remainder of the big four and you have many predicting the end of this elite group.

I prefer to stay away from such band wagons and point to the second half of the season where injuries, fatigue and doubts will challenge these teams to their very limits. Villa present a compelling case study as Martin O’Neill’s men saw 11 of their 17 premier league victories last season come before the new year.

However, there are other mountains to face, namely the pressure associated with rising expectation. It may be good fun to smash Wigan 9-1 in November when nobody expects anything, but when columns, radio shows and television channels turn their attention to the team, can the players handle the heat? Manchester City have a slight advantage here, as their team comprises of the likes of Tevez, Adebayor and Toure, who have experience with such matters.

If it wasn’t hard enough, there is the question of talent and match winners. In the marathon of a league, no team, no matter how strong, can be expected to play well throughout. Ultimately, there are spells where a select few must stand up and provide the difference. The consistency of men like Gerrard, Lampard, Torres and Ronaldo are testament to this.

All in all, I guess you could say I will be very surprised if the ‘big four’ is broken this season.

Arsenal fans should not jump at this as the team from North London have also conceded 14 league goals and are therefore projected to concede 48 league goals. Manchester United hold the record for the most league goals conceded by a team going to win the Premiership, with 45 league goals in 99/00.

You may argue, it is not a question of goals scored or goals conceded, but rather the goal difference. That may well be, but a team winning 1-0 three times in a row are better off than a team winning 4-0, 4-0 and losing a game 1-0. Arsenal are unlikely to maintain such a rich goalscoring rate and therefore will experience periods where the team will have to defend better.

Finally, it is worth adding that Chelsea and Manchester United are projected to score 92 and 73 league goals this season, respectively. The projected conceded league goals for the same clubs are 25 and 38, respectively.

Let’s start with the teams that have topped the table by the end of October. In the 12 seasons just 4 teams who have led at that stage have gone on to win the title. Three teams have finished second, two in third , one in fourth, one in sixth and one in eighth. However, if we take the post Roman-era i.e. the last 6 seasons, then 3 of the eventual champions have led at the end of October, with two teams finishing second and one team finishing third.

If we take the reverse look and see where the eventual champions were at the end of October then we see a stronger trend, with four of them leading, five of them second, one in third, one in fourth and of course Manchester United who were sixth at this stage last season. So it appears that with the exception of last season, where it must be said Manchester United had a game in hand which would see them rise to at least fourth with a win, there is a strong chance that the eventual champions will come from the top 2 teams at this month’s end.

Is it all doom and gloom for the teams outside the top 2 then? Not exactly. In 05-06 United were 7th and finished 2nd, and Liverpool were 13th in the same year yet finished 3rd. In fact the teams which were in the top 4 by the end of October have not all finished inside the top 4 by the end of the season over those 12 years.

The biggest movers in the post-Roman era of the “big four” have been Liverpool, there average position in the last 6 years at October end has been 7th (7 and a third to be precise) yet there season end position average has been between 3rd and 4th (3.5). That’s a difference of nearly 4 positions. Manchester United have jumped up an average of 2 and half positions in this period and always in the positive direction. Whereas Arsenal have moved an average of just under 2 positions. It is Chelsea who have been the most static with a change of under 1 position on average (two thirds).

If we look at the other side of the table we see that of the 12 teams bottom at the end of October, 3 finished last but 8 were relegated and 11 finished 17th or lower. The only exception was Tottenham last year who finished 8th. It doesn’t read too much better for the teams who were 19th at this stage with 7 being relegated and 10 finishing 16th or lower. So it is fair to say that being bottom at that stage will more than likely mean a relegation struggle. In the last six seasons, five of the teams who were bottom at that stage were relegated. Of the 18 teams in the bottom 3 in the last 6 seasons, 10 were relegated although none were relegated last season.

These statistics show a sense of inevitability for the teams at the extremes of the table, and this shouldn’t surprise us as over a quarter of the season will have been played by this point. This does show that there is still hope for the teams who aren’t quite in such peril, with the team in 18th at the end of October only being relegated three times in the 12 seasons.

It is tempting to apply all these statistics to this season, but early indications show a tight season at the top and bottom of the table. I doubt any manager will be counting their chickens or throwing in the towel at this stage as Middlesborough (9th to 19th), Manchester United (6th to 1st) and Tottenham (20th to 8th) will tell you from last year.

Losing Xabi Alonso has been a major talking point. Steven Gerrard described Alonso as Liverpool’s best player last season and his precision passing undoubtedly orchestrated many victories. This season Rafa’s men have scored the second most league goals and it seems there are no real signs of their attacking qualities in decline.

The real problem has been in defence where Liverpool have conceded 10 goals from set pieces which is the most for any Premiership club. Contrast this to the champions, Manchester United, who are yet to concede from a set piece. However, is this really a major problem? I would argue no, since one would expect a top manager like Rafa Benitez to address this quickly.

Looking through the defeats Liverpool have suffered, the club have not really been outclassed. Against Sunderland, the Reds attempted 424 passes (85% success) compared to their opponents who attempted 185 passes (69% success). In their home defeat to Aston Villa these statistics were 512 passes (85% success) and 261 passes (75% success) to Liverpool and Villa, respectively. One would also note, this type of dominance rivals similar statistics from Arsenal who are renown for controlling football matches.

The only real criticism I accept about Liverpool is that they rely too heavily on Gerrard and Torres. With the exception of Dirk Kuyt, it is difficult to see who else offers real attacking options. The picture is much different when you look at clubs like Chelsea, United and Arsenal. Having said that, Liverpool are yet to unveil the talented Alberto Aquilani and one expects the Italian to make a huge impact.

David James 525

Ashley Cole 694
Rio Ferdinand 538
John Terry 719
Glen Johnson 616

Steven Gerrard 531
Gareth Barry 675
Frank Lampard 890
Theo Walcott 457

Wayne Rooney 760
Emile Heskey 508

The most striking statistic is that of Frank Lampard who continues to demonstrate consistency and reliability for England. Amazingly, he has missed 10 minutes of qualifiers for England.

There are several questions which naturally follow from the above:

Who will play in goal for England?
James, Green, Kirkland, Foster, Carson, Robinson …

Who will play on the right side of midfield?
Walcott, Lennon, Milner, Beckham, Gerrard …

Who will play alongside Rooney?
Heskey, Defoe, Crouch, Owen, Agbonlahor …

After returning from injury, can Joe Cole take the left sided position?

Please discuss!