The way of modern football means that many trophies are won and lost on a back line so Capello will want to get this right but he will also be looking for versatile players in the hope that he can fit in an extra striker.
Here is a list of all defenders selected in each Capello squad:
John Terry, Rio Ferdinand, Ashley Cole, Glen Johnson, Wayne Bridge, Wes Brown, Joleon Lescott, Matthew Upson, Ledley King, Micah Richards, Nicky Shorey, David Wheater, Jonathan Woodgate, Curtis Davies, Phil Jagielka, Stephen Warnock, Luke Young, Leighton Baines, Gary Cahill, Gary Neville and Michael Mancienne.
Fabio Capello will want to pick 7 or 8 defenders and the list above is not the full extent of his choices as there are now a few others on the brink. John Terry, England captain, will certainly be picked alongside Ashley Cole, Glen Johnson and Rio Ferdinand. Capello will want to find cover for each of these players, but will also have an eye on a player with versatility.
Let’s begin with the centre back role and discount some of the names in the above list. David Wheater, Michael Mancienne and Curtis Davies are all firmly out of the picture. I also feel that Woodgate’s injuries will mean that he will miss out. This does open the door for Dawson as he has been filling in for Spurs and Shawcross of Stoke, Johnson of Birmingham and Turner of Sunderland are playing well enough to provide outside options.
At the start of the season, Lescott and Upson had their position in the squad as centre back cover but based on what we’ve seen from them this season I don’t think they can go to South Africa and provide Capello with much confidence. There really is a fight developing for this position especially with Rio not playing football at the moment, it could be the vital selection for England.
If fitness wasn’t an issue I would select Ledley King each time, but unfortunately it may be deemed an unnecessary risk. Wes Brown’s versatility will probably pave a way for him but his form will need to improve. There is a problem in that the in-form players play for the “lesser” teams and the players like Brown and Lescott just aren’t playing well enough.
If I were Capello I would be praying that Rio and Terry are fully fit and in form, but past that you would think that Capello will stick to one of Lescott and Upson even though the defences of Man City and West Ham have been far from solid. It is the wrong decision as Cahill and Shawcross are playing very well and deserve a place in the squad, but I just can’t see it happening. You may have noticed I said he would pick one of Lescott and Upson, this is because there is one other option who is certain to be in the squad if he is fit. This is Everton’s Phil Jagielka and he will be back in 2010 providing the most clear cut cover for England’s key centre backs.
The right back and left back provide less of a headache for the England manager as he has world class players in Ashley Cole and Glen Johnson. The role of cover for the left-back position seems to be a shoot out between Warnock, Bridge and Baines. Of the three, Wayne Bridge has the most experience but again is the most out of form. Baines and Warnock provide a good final ball but don’t have the pace that you would like to have in this position. This did mean that Gibbs was briefly in the picture, but injury ruined that dream. I believe Bridge is the favourite amongst pundits to go, but I also believe he won’t be in the final squad. The English contingence at Aston Villa will provide Capello with plenty of opportunities to see Warnock and their position in the league will give him a massive edge when it comes to picking the squad.
The right back position may be where Capello looks to the utility player. He has options in Milner and Hargreaves in this position, both of whom can play across the midfield and provide good options from set pieces. If he was looking to select an outright right back then he would be making a choice between Brown and Richards who both provide centre back cover and perhaps Luke Young. I can’t see Richards being picked on current form and Luke Young doesn’t provide any versatility, so I feel Capello will go for the more experienced Wes Brown.
England Squad so far:
Goalkeepers : D James, R Green, J Hart
Defenders: J Terry, R Ferdinand, A Cole, G Johnson, S Warnock, P Jagielka, W Brown, (M Upson or J Lescott)
