The Binocular

If we take a look at the end of October tables for the last 12 Premiership seasons we find interesting statistics.

Let’s start with the teams that have topped the table by the end of October. In the 12 seasons just 4 teams who have led at that stage have gone on to win the title. Three teams have finished second, two in third , one in fourth, one in sixth and one in eighth. However, if we take the post Roman-era i.e. the last 6 seasons, then 3 of the eventual champions have led at the end of October, with two teams finishing second and one team finishing third.

If we take the reverse look and see where the eventual champions were at the end of October then we see a stronger trend, with four of them leading, five of them second, one in third, one in fourth and of course Manchester United who were sixth at this stage last season. So it appears that with the exception of last season, where it must be said Manchester United had a game in hand which would see them rise to at least fourth with a win, there is a strong chance that the eventual champions will come from the top 2 teams at this month’s end.

Is it all doom and gloom for the teams outside the top 2 then? Not exactly. In 05-06 United were 7th and finished 2nd, and Liverpool were 13th in the same year yet finished 3rd. In fact the teams which were in the top 4 by the end of October have not all finished inside the top 4 by the end of the season over those 12 years.

The biggest movers in the post-Roman era of the “big four” have been Liverpool, there average position in the last 6 years at October end has been 7th (7 and a third to be precise) yet there season end position average has been between 3rd and 4th (3.5). That’s a difference of nearly 4 positions. Manchester United have jumped up an average of 2 and half positions in this period and always in the positive direction. Whereas Arsenal have moved an average of just under 2 positions. It is Chelsea who have been the most static with a change of under 1 position on average (two thirds).

If we look at the other side of the table we see that of the 12 teams bottom at the end of October, 3 finished last but 8 were relegated and 11 finished 17th or lower. The only exception was Tottenham last year who finished 8th. It doesn’t read too much better for the teams who were 19th at this stage with 7 being relegated and 10 finishing 16th or lower. So it is fair to say that being bottom at that stage will more than likely mean a relegation struggle. In the last six seasons, five of the teams who were bottom at that stage were relegated. Of the 18 teams in the bottom 3 in the last 6 seasons, 10 were relegated although none were relegated last season.

These statistics show a sense of inevitability for the teams at the extremes of the table, and this shouldn’t surprise us as over a quarter of the season will have been played by this point. This does show that there is still hope for the teams who aren’t quite in such peril, with the team in 18th at the end of October only being relegated three times in the 12 seasons.

It is tempting to apply all these statistics to this season, but early indications show a tight season at the top and bottom of the table. I doubt any manager will be counting their chickens or throwing in the towel at this stage as Middlesborough (9th to 19th), Manchester United (6th to 1st) and Tottenham (20th to 8th) will tell you from last year.